Pre-tourney Rankings
Mountain West
2014-15


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
42 San Diego St. 96.9%   9   25 - 8 14 - 4 25 - 8 14 - 4 +9.8      +4.9 42 +4.9 42 59.1 324 +10.6 38 +9.5 2
51 Boise St. 46.4%   23 - 8 14 - 4 23 - 8 14 - 4 +9.2      +4.6 51 +4.6 51 63.3 260 +9.0 50 +9.8 1
63 Colorado St. 60.5%   11   26 - 6 13 - 5 26 - 6 13 - 5 +7.5      +3.7 63 +3.7 63 70.9 65 +10.3 41 +7.6 3
97 UNLV 0.0%   17 - 15 8 - 10 17 - 15 8 - 10 +4.4      +2.2 97 +2.2 97 67.9 133 +3.7 109 -0.3 8
112 Wyoming 100.0%   12   23 - 9 11 - 7 23 - 9 11 - 7 +3.6      +1.8 112 +1.8 112 55.1 347 +7.2 69 +4.6 4
122 Utah St. 0.0%   17 - 13 11 - 7 17 - 13 11 - 7 +2.8      +1.4 122 +1.4 122 64.7 214 +2.6 133 +4.1 6
141 New Mexico 0.0%   15 - 16 7 - 11 15 - 16 7 - 11 +1.7      +0.9 141 +0.9 141 61.8 285 +0.9 149 +0.1 7
189 Fresno St. 0.0%   13 - 17 10 - 8 13 - 17 10 - 8 -1.5      -0.7 189 -0.7 189 67.0 151 -0.1 164 +4.1 5
194 Air Force 0.0%   12 - 17 6 - 12 12 - 17 6 - 12 -1.7      -0.9 194 -0.9 194 59.2 320 -2.5 206 -2.6 9
259 Nevada 0.0%   7 - 22 5 - 13 7 - 22 5 - 13 -5.4      -2.7 259 -2.7 259 65.2 199 -6.9 286 -4.7 10
346 San Jose St. 0.0%   0 - 28 0 - 18 0 - 28 0 - 18 -15.4      -7.7 346 -7.7 346 64.6 216 -21.4 349 -18.2 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
San Diego St. 1.0 100.0
Boise St. 1.0 100.0
Colorado St. 3.0 100.0
UNLV 7.0 100.0
Wyoming 4.0 100.0
Utah St. 4.0 100.0
New Mexico 8.0 100.0
Fresno St. 6.0 100.0
Air Force 9.0 100.0
Nevada 10.0 100.0
San Jose St. 11.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
San Diego St. 14 - 4 100.0
Boise St. 14 - 4 100.0
Colorado St. 13 - 5 100.0
UNLV 8 - 10 100.0
Wyoming 11 - 7 100.0
Utah St. 11 - 7 100.0
New Mexico 7 - 11 100.0
Fresno St. 10 - 8 100.0
Air Force 6 - 12 100.0
Nevada 5 - 13 100.0
San Jose St. 0 - 18 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
San Diego St. 100.0% 100.0
Boise St. 100.0% 100.0
Colorado St.
UNLV
Wyoming
Utah St.
New Mexico
Fresno St.
Air Force
Nevada
San Jose St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
San Diego St. 96.9% 0.0% 96.9% 9   0.1 0.9 5.4 27.5 44.2 17.8 1.1 3.1 96.9%
Boise St. 46.4% 0.0% 46.4% 0.1 1.0 8.4 30.0 6.9 53.6 46.4%
Colorado St. 60.5% 0.0% 60.5% 11   0.0 0.1 1.8 13.8 37.3 7.4 0.0 39.5 60.5%
UNLV 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Wyoming 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 12   0.2 9.8 87.6 2.4 0.0 0.0%
Utah St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
New Mexico 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Nevada 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
San Diego St. 96.9% 0.1% 96.9% 42.7% 6.4% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Boise St. 46.4% 25.3% 33.2% 12.5% 3.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado St. 60.5% 29.9% 43.0% 13.3% 2.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 17.5% 3.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nevada 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 3.0 0.4 20.9 53.1 25.6
1st Round 100.0% 2.7 0.8 37.5 49.4 12.3
2nd Round 64.1% 0.9 35.9 45.1 16.3 2.6 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 14.8% 0.2 85.2 13.9 0.8 0.0
Elite Eight 3.7% 0.0 96.3 3.7 0.0
Final Four 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0